Comcast
CMCSA
 The stock is down about 14% over the past month (about 21 trading days) which is underperforming the broader S&P 500 Index, which has been down about 11% over the same period. While broader markets have been weighed down by fears of a recession, as the Federal Reserve and global central banks continue their path to raising interest rates, there are specific factors that are hurting Comcast. Comcast’s bread and butter broadband business stagnated, as the company added no net subscribers during the second quarter of 2022 (the last reported quarter), as demand seen during the Covid pandemic slowed just as competition from fixed wireless broadband services of wireless carriers was mounting. For example, T-Mobile topped the broadband industry by adding 560,000 subscribers during the last quarter. While it’s unlikely that wireless carriers will be able to challenge cable-based providers in the long term, as wireless capacity is more limited, investors are concerned about Comcast’s recent loss of momentum.

Given that CMCSA stock is down 14% over the past month, will it continue on its downward trajectory, or is a recovery imminent? Going through the historical performance, there Almost 68% chance that CMCSA shares will rise over the next month. out of 50 cases In the past 10 years, CMCSA stock has seen a 21-day decline of 14% or more, 34 who are they This led to a rise in CMCSA stock during Subsequent one month period (Twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 34 out of 50, or 68% chance of CMCSA stock going up over the next month. See our analysis at Comcast stock opportunity to rise for more details.

Calculation of “Event Probability” and “Chance of Rise” using the data of the past 10 years

  • After moving -8% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 50% of the occasions.
  • After moving -10% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 53% of the occasions.
  • After moving -14% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 68% of the occasions.

This pattern indicates that there is a reasonable chance that CMCSA stock will rise in the near term.

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