The stock is down about 22% over the past month (about 21 trading days), a largely underperformance in the broader S&P 500 Index which has been down about 9% over the same period. The big sell-off comes as aluminum prices face pressure, falling from a high of around $3,700 per metric ton in early March 2022 and $2,850 in January, to just about $2,250 currently, as central banks are expected to drive a steady increase. in interest rates. Impact of global growth and demand for industrial goods. The US GDP has also shrunk for the last two consecutive quarters, while data from China’s manufacturing and real estate sectors were also not encouraging, leading to a hazy outlook for aluminum demand. In addition to lower commodity prices, Alcoa is also struggling with higher energy prices and higher input costs, which could hurt its profitability.

Given that AA stock is down 22% over the past month, will it continue on its downward trajectory, or is a recovery imminent? Going through the historical performance, there Almost equal chance of AA stock going up or down over the next month. out of 82 cases In the past six years, AA stock has seen a 21-day decline of 22% or more, 44 who are they Led AA stock soar above Subsequent one month period (Twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 44 out of 82, or 54% chance of AA stock going up over the next month. See our analysis at Alcoa stock has a chance to rise for more details.

Calculation of “event probability” and “chance of rise” using the data of the past six years

  • After moving 12% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days 53% of the time.
  • After moving -17% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 47% of the occasions.
  • After moving -22% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 54% of the occasions.

This pattern indicates that there is not much chance for AA stock to rise in the near term.

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