Given that AA stock is down 22% over the past month, will it continue on its downward trajectory, or is a recovery imminent? Going through the historical performance, there Almost equal chance of AA stock going up or down over the next month. out of 82 cases In the past six years, AA stock has seen a 21-day decline of 22% or more, 44 who are they Led AA stock soar above Subsequent one month period (Twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 44 out of 82, or 54% chance of AA stock going up over the next month. See our analysis at Alcoa stock has a chance to rise for more details.
Calculation of “event probability” and “chance of rise” using the data of the past six years
- After moving 12% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days 53% of the time.
- After moving -17% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 47% of the occasions.
- After moving -22% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 54% of the occasions.
This pattern indicates that there is not much chance for AA stock to rise in the near term.
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