The government sent the 2023 budget Thursday evening, which forecasts 60% inflation for 2023 and an official exchange rate of $269.90. In addition to The central bank raised the interest rate to 75% After increasing it 5.5 percentage points.
In addition, reinforced the exchange trap: they will not be able to buy savings, MEP and CCL who maintain price support.
Restrictions on the tourist dollar
The new measures under analysis now refer to the tourist dollar, given that the government is concerned about a greater influx of foreign currency due to the expenses of Argentines who will travel to Qatar to participate in the World Cup.
The The government is studying the application of amendments to the dollar card because, Minister of Economy Serge Massa “In recent days, it has received a number of proposals from different sectors, from industries, from companies, a proposal shared by the government, which is that dollars should be allocated to greater production, to create jobs, to attend to health conditions that need to be addressed.”
It is rumored in the market that it will be under analysis to raise the income tax perception from 45 to 52%. This possibility would be more of a guess than a fact. Minister Sergio Massa is not inclined to options that involve higher taxes.
Another idea emerged that all tourism-related operations are done through MEP dollars, which means an open exchange split. MEP operations are carried out by buying a sovereign bond in pesos and reselling it for dollars.
Despite the fact that since the implementation of the soybean dollar, BCRA managed to buy about 2000 million, this is a drop of water in the desert, and for this reason, restrictions on access to foreign exchange are analyzed.
Until this Friday, soybean farmers Marketing it almost eve 750 thousand tons s Thus, they collected more than 8 million in nine dayssince the export increase program came into effect on Monday last week, which is carrying out a kind of The exchange rate of $200 per dollar for oilseed exports until September 30th.
Expansion of this scheme to other sectors that generate dollar income for the country, such as mining or the software industry, is also being considered. The premise of a desperate plan is to strengthen the central bank’s reserves and thus restore the purchasing power of wages.
New measures for the dollar
In addition to the above and those under analysis, the government has reported more dollar-related measures. One is that the budget includes a laundry into which unauthorized dollars can be brought in to buy used real estate and pay for imports.
In Article 71, the budget states that The declared money (which must be paid between 5 and 20% according to the original rule) “can also be used for the acquisition of second-hand property”. Let’s remember that So far you can only buy new units or units under construction.
However, the purchase of used real estate will have limitations: It must be intended for the home of the money launderer and his family or, “for a period of not less than 10 years”, for rent with the exclusive destination of the room of the house (i.e. not commercial).
It will be the whitening period 6 months There are no money laundering restrictions for those who already have property in their name. So the taxpayer You can have other properties and buy a used property to use as a home and therefore qualify for money laundering.
In this Friday edition of What’s Said on the Tables, the district’s traditional financial section, it’s noted: There is a lot of speculation about whether all of these isolated actions don’t pave the way for an Austral-style plan and save the differences and teams involved. Referring to the blow dealt by former President Raul Alfonsín that allowed him shortly after to win the elections. This hypothesis is based on the simple fact that if inflation continues to decline, it will be difficult to get to 2023, not just elections. Meanwhile, more divisive noise, which Rubinstein’s deputy has often described.
dollars for imports
On the other hand, in Article 72, it is enabled Using unauthorized dollars to bring goods from abroad into the country. This is an initiative that Cgera presented this week to the Minister of Foreign Trade, Matthias Tombolini.
To do this, create a file Argentine Investment and Production Incentive System Through it, residents of Argentina will be able to launder dollars in the country and abroad for one year, but Only to pay for imports for consumption, including services intended for production processes. Funds must be deposited into the Argentine Investment and Production Special Deposit and Cancellation Account The initiative says “in the manner and within the conditions set by the AFIP and the Central Bank”.
The tax that must be paid in this case is the same as the tax established for construction: from the date of entry into force of the system until the expiration of 90 calendar days: 5%; from 90 to 180: 10%; From day 180 to a year: 20%. Dollars will be valued at the purchasing exchange rate of Bank Nacion.
Super dollar reserves
Externally, the dollar in the world reached its highest level in 20 years. And for international analysts, the bullish run is far from over. For Argentina, it has a triple effect: it hits emerging countries, raw materials and investor appetite.
The reserves of the central bank in the past two weeks until Friday added about 2170 million dollars due to the massive liquidation of soybean exporters who benefit from a special exchange rate during September. With the foreign exchange idea, the government recognizes 200 pesos per dollar for those who sell their soybean sites, one of the main national products with wide overseas distribution.
But on the other hand, the devaluation of the Chinese yuan dealt a blow to the central bank’s reserves.
Dollar MEP and CCL
With an exchange rate gap of more than 100%, the financial dollar Register this Friday, September 16th Its third straight rise and its biggest weekly gain since July, driven by Negative inflation data for August, due to demand generated by the dollar soybean chart, and due to increased global risk aversionOperators commented.
On the exchange, the Cash Settlement Dollar (CCL) – which works with Global 2030 – on Friday offered $5.78 (+2%) to $301.15 – its highest value of the month -. This brings the gap with the official wholesale exchange rate to 109.8%.
In contrast, the MEP dollar – evaluated according to the world 2030 – rose by $4.53 (+1.6%) to $294.19, its highest value since July. Thus the difference with the official reaches 105%.
Both prices posted weekly increases of $20.27 (+7.2%) and $24.63 (+9.1%), respectively, which is the largest increase in this period since the end of July.
Among the reasons that led to the sharp jump in financial exchange rates, is the deterioration of conditions in the external context, under pressure from expectations of a sharper rise in US interest rates than what has been seen so far, at the same time in light of the financial crisis. The latest data from the world’s leading economy.
Juan Pablo Albornoz, economic analyst at Inveqc, commented that “although worse-than-expected CPI data for Argentina could have revived demand for foreign exchange, I understand that the acceleration of the MEP account and the liquidity account primarily respond to global phenomena.” ambito.
US inflation showed higher data in August than expected (8.3% vs. 8.1% yoy). In contrast, core inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy, rose 0.6% monthly and 6.3% annually, indicating an acceleration compared to the July figures. “This perception highlights that taming the inflationary process is more difficult than previously thought,” Al-bornoz said.
Another factor that partially explains the strong recovery of CCL and MEP is the increase in potential demand resulting from the soybean dollar measure, according to the market.
“The strong increase in demand for CCL and MEP could be related to the settlements that agriculture is making through the soybean dollar, but also because the market sees that in the near future there is a significant amount of pesos in the market derived from the issuance of this measure could lead to The complexity of the fiscal deficit jigsaw,” economist Federico Glosten pointed out to this method.
“With the new rate hike and acceleration of the ‘crawling peg’ already on the table, operators’ attention continues to be focused on the ‘soybean dollar’ as it is essential for the supply of foreign currency and thus the recovery of reserves, although the accompanying monetary issue must be sterilized to avoid pressure on inflation.