The dollar: measures in analysis, expectations, and what the market expects

The dollar: measures in analysis, expectations, and what the market expects

Analysts consulted by Ambeto see a reordering of the blue dollar in the new scenario. Similarly, an international report by 40 economists from consulting firms and national and foreign banks also gave forecasts on what to expect with the price of the dollar.

In the scenario of no dollars, the government reinforced the exchange trap: they would not be able to buy savings, MEP and CCL who maintain tariff subsidies and also created a trap for exporters of agricultural products.

Restrictions on the tourist dollar

The new measures under analysis now refer to the tourist dollar, given that the government is concerned about a greater influx of foreign currency due to the expenses of Argentines who will travel to Qatar to participate in the World Cup.

The The government is studying the application of amendments to the dollar card because, Minister of Economy Serge Massa “In recent days, it has received a number of proposals from different sectors, from industries, from companies, a proposal shared by the government, which is that dollars should be allocated to greater production, to create jobs, to attend to health conditions that need to be addressed.”

Tropical Beach Tourist Dollar 01.jpg

It is rumored in the market that it will be under analysis to raise the income tax perception from 45 to 52%. This possibility would be more of a guess than a fact. Minister Sergio Massa is not inclined to options that involve higher taxes.

Another idea emerged is that all tourism-related operations are processed through MEP dollars, which means an open exchange split. MEP operations are carried out by buying a sovereign bond in pesos and reselling it for dollars.

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soybean dollar

central bank Monday ordered that agricultural export companies that sold soybean dollar will not be able to reach The official exchange market, nor the stock exchange to buy MEP or CCL. It was later confirmed that the $5 billion target set by Sergio Massa had been exceeded.

The measure does not include producers who sell soybeans but companies that sell soybeans. “I want to make it clear that the central bank’s decision does not include producers who have been accompanying the program to increase exports with a lot of effort,” said Agriculture Minister Juan Jose Pahelo.

The Central Bank officially announced that โ€œeconomic agents who sold soybeans under the Export Increase Program will not be able to access the foreign exchange market to purchase foreign currencies or carry out operations with bonds and securities with foreign currency settlement.โ€

In other words, those who benefited from Adjustments against the Soybean Dollar that was With the aim of accelerating the sale of these oilseeds, their access to the foreign exchange market will be restricted.

New measures for the dollar

In addition to the above and those under analysis, the government has reported more dollar-related measures. One is that the budget includes a laundry into which unauthorized dollars can be brought in to buy used real estate and pay for imports.

In Article 71, the budget states that The declared money (which must be paid between 5 and 20% according to the original rule) “can also be used for the acquisition of second-hand property”. Let’s remember that So far you can only buy new units or units under construction.

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However, the purchase of used real estate will have limitations: It must be intended for the home of the money launderer and his family or, “for a period of not less than 10 years”, for rent with the exclusive destination of the room of the house (i.e. not commercial).

It will be the whitening period 6 months There are no money laundering restrictions for those who already have property in their name. So the taxpayer You can have other properties and buy a used property to use as a home and therefore qualify for money laundering.

In last Friday’s edition of What’s Said on the Tables, the traditional section of financial fieldNoted: There has been many speculations about whether all this brevity of isolated actions does not pave the way for an Austral-style plan, saving the differences and teams involved. Referring to the blow dealt by former President Raul Alfonsรญn that allowed him shortly after to win the elections. This hypothesis is based on the simple fact that if inflation continues to decline, it will be difficult to get to 2023, not just elections. Meanwhile, more divisive noise, which Rubinstein’s deputy has often described.

dollars for imports

On the other hand, in Article 72 of the 2023 budget, it is enabled Using unauthorized dollars to bring goods from abroad into the country.

To do this, create a file Argentine Investment and Production Incentive System Through it, residents of Argentina will be able to launder dollars in the country and abroad for one year, but Only to pay for imports for consumption, including services intended for production processes. Funds must be deposited into the Argentine Investment and Production Special Deposit and Cancellation Account The initiative says “in the form and within the terms set by the AFIP and the Central Bank”.

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The tax that must be paid in this case is the same as the tax established for construction: from the date of entry into force of the system until the expiration of 90 calendar days: 5%; from 90 to 180: 10%; From day 180 to a year: 20%. The dollars will be valued at the purchasing exchange rate of Banc Nacion.

Super dollar reserves

Externally, the dollar in the world reached its highest level in 20 years. And for international analysts, the bullish run is far from over. For Argentina, it has a triple effect: it hits emerging countries, raw materials, and investor appetite.

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