CSX shares (NYSE: CSX
) was down 8% for the month, matching a similar decline in the broader S&P500. In particular, the fall of CSX can be attributed to fears of a railroad strike. Major rail companies have been given a timetable until Friday (September 16) to reach an agreement with unions on working conditions and wages, among other issues. If the strike goes through, it would cost the US economy $2 billion a day.  A rail strike would also put pressure on already high inflation.
However, the strike has now reportedly been averted and a tentative agreement has been reached between the parties to address workers’ needs.  The agreed terms are likely to translate into higher costs for rail companies and weigh on their operating margin growth, which is trending higher. For perspective, CSX’s operating margin rose to 38.9% in 2021 from 27.1% in 2017. While that number was 36.5% over the trailing twelve months, rising costs weighed on the metric in recent quarters, and the key metric remains elevated than levels seen before the pandemic. Our CSX Operating Income Comparison has more details.
How will the recent fall affect CSX stock?
Now that CSX shares are down 8% for the month, will it continue its downward trajectory or is it on the rise? As for historical performances, yes good chance for CSX stock to rise within the next month. CSX has moved -8% or more per month 154 times over the past ten years. Of those instances, 107 resulted in CSX shares rising over the following one month (twenty one trading days). This historical pattern reflects a 107 out of 154, or 69%, probability that CSX shares will rise over the next month. Check out our analysis CSX Chances for Stock Growth More details.
Calculating “event probability” and “upside chance” using data from the past ten years
- After moving -2.1% or more over five days, stocks rose 56% of the time in the following five days.
- After moving -1.4% or more over a ten-day period, stocks rose 56% of the time in the following ten days.
- After a stock has moved -8.5% or more in a 21-day period, it has risen 69% of the time in the following 21 days.
This pattern suggests a higher chance of upside for CSX stock over the next five days, ten days and next month.
CSX Return (Recent) Peer Comparison
- Five-day return: CP highest at 2.6%; Lowest UNP at -4.7%
- Ten-day return: CP highest at 2.6%; ODFL lowest at -6.0%
- 21-day return: CP highest at -4.3%; ODFL lowest at -16.8%
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While CSX stock looks like it may see higher levels, it’s helpful to see how Peers CSX fare on the metrics that matter. Additional valuable comparisons for companies across industries can be found at Peer Comparison.
With higher inflation and rising interest rates, among other things, CSX shares are down 17% this year. Can it drop more? See how low CSX stock can go by comparing its declines in previous market downturns. Here is a summary of the performance of all stocks in previous market dips.
In addition, the Covid-19 crisis has created many price discontinuities that can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counterintuitive stock valuation is CSX vs. Amkor.
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