Dollar vs Inflation: The latest advice from experts for investing

Dollar vs Inflation: The latest advice from experts for investing

This is stated in a report by Adcap Grupo Financiero, which confirms that in the first half of the month, mutual fund funds (FCI) were bailed out in dollars for 13,078 million dollars. However, although it is noted that the assets that provide coverage inflation They will continue to offer the most attractive returns, warning that “the local context gives us reason to believe that instruments that provide devaluation coverage will continue to offer attractive returns.”

In this sense, the exchange rate divergence of soybean exporters calmed expectations of a secret jump in the short term, as well as a temporary solution to the rate of accumulation of central bank reserves. This dynamic led to a change of trend among investors who, after selling off CER debt in June, strongly demanded dollar-linked direct investment institutions, which reached a maximum of $80.6 billion in net subscriptions in July, in the context of strong uncertainty about the direction of the exchange rate .

Along these lines, Juan Pablo Irazabal, financial advisor at Bull Market Brokers, explained: โ€œForeign direct currencies pegged to the dollar are indexed at the official exchange rate, which is A3500. By setting a differentiated exchange rate, the official dollar, with which exports were originally made, remains as a certificate. Therefore, many importing and exporting companies, which used FCI pegged dollars to be able to cover themselves from devaluation, no longer use them because this split took effect.

He added in this regard Demand for CER ุณู†ุฏุงุช bonds It increased again and inflows over the past two weeks exceeded $15,000 million. This increase is due to the fact that, on the other hand, the pegged dollar is no longer used, as well as the fact that there are very few options for investing since most of them produce negative results.

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Similarly, splitting the soybean dollar leads to an expansion of between 10% and 15% of the monetary base, which It will translate to inflation sooner or later. It is true that everything that is CERs takes time to replicate, but it is the most faithful thing in the end to replicate the monetary expansion that is currently being implemented,โ€ Irazabal analysis.

Over the coming months, demand for CER bonds is expected to continue due to the strong acceleration in inflation. โ€œOutflows from the related FCI dollar will go to CER, but not in the dimensions we saw in the first half, as was considered.

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