Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ
NDAQ
: AMAT) is down 16% in the past month, a far underperformance than the S&P 500 which was itself down 9% over the period. If you look at the change over the last week and 10 days as well, the stock is back -2.5% and -2.4%, and has done worse than the broader markets on both occasions. AMAT’s latest Q3 2019 earnings saw revenue rise from $6.2 billion in Q3 2011 to $6.52 billion in Q3 22, primarily driven by higher sales from the semiconductor systems segment. However, with higher cost of goods sold and operating expenses, the company reported operating income of $1.92 billion, down from $2.01 billion in Q321. As a result, the company’s net profit declined, and earnings per share fell to $1.86, compared to at $1.89 in the third quarter of ’21.

Now, is Applied Materials stock set to continue underperforming or can we expect a bounce again? We believe there is a strong 71% chance that AMAT stock will rise over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in stock prices over the past 10 years. See our analysis at AMAT stock upside opportunity. For additional details on the company’s historical returns and their comparison with peers, see Applied Materials Stock Return.

Twenty-one days: AMAT -16%, vs. S&P500 -9%; underperforming market

(2% probability of occurrence; 71% probability of a rise in the next 21 days)

  • AMAT . stock lost 16% Over the last twenty-one trading days (1 month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) it is down 9%
  • A change of -16% or more in twenty-one trading days is a 2% probability event, which has occurred 55 times out of 2514 in the past 10 years
  • Of these 55 cases, the stock experienced positive movement over the next 21 trading days on 39 occasions
  • This refers to a 71% chance that the stock will rise within the next 21 trading days

Ten days: AMAT -2.4%, vs. S&P500 -1.7%; underperforming market

(30% probability of occurrence; 55% probability of rise within the next 10 days)

  • AMAT . stock lost 2.4% Over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) it is down 1.7%.
  • A change of -2.4% or more over ten trading days is a 30% probability event, which has occurred 765 times out of 2515 times in the past 10 years
  • Among the 765 cases, the stock experienced a positive movement over the next 10 trading days on 422 occasions
  • This refers to a 55% probability of the stock going up over the next 10 trading days

Five days: AMAT -2.5%, vs. S&P500 -2.3%; underperforming market

(19% probability of occurrence; 58% probability of rise over the next 5 days)

  • AMAT . stock lost 2.5% Over a five-day trading period ending 9/20/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which is down 2.3% during this period.
  • A change of -2.5% or more over five trading days (1 week) is a 19% probability event, which has occurred 489 times out of 2,515 times in the past 10 years
  • Among the 489 cases, the stock experienced positive movement over the next five trading days on 282 occasions
  • This refers to a 58% probability of the stock going up over the next 5 trading days

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