In this context there are several questions. How long will the blue color continue without moving in the face of the dollar’s advance and inflation? Added to this, With the financial dollar rising and expectations that the blue will regain the bullish trend. Is the time limit appropriate? Or can it be “short” in a short time?. in Domain We consult with analysts.
“With the 550-point rate hike by the BCRA on Thursday, there are two specific cases. On the one hand, the nominal annual rate (TNA) is at 75% per annum for fixed terms for individuals and Leliqs, and the 107% effective annual rate (TEA) which indicates that The first is less than the annual inflation, that is, it is not positive in real terms, But on the other hand, expect annual inflation next year, TEA is at least 10% higher. Therefore, it may happen that the increase in term deposits (8.5% last month) continues and more and more savers choose this option.” Frederic Glostein for this method.
On the other hand, despite the rise, the rate is lower than the monthly inflation rate, meaning that the consumer price index for August was 7% and the monthly rate was 6.25%, so The saver loses 0.75 percentage points per month by choosing the traditional fixed term. In this sense, assuming inflation could be 6% per month, on an annual basis somewhat above 100%, that would be a real return of about 3%, but if inflation was 6.5%, it would be less than that again, The differential is very good“, he added.
“In contrast, dollars are up quite a bit compared to inflation. While the financials are up just over 40% so far this year, blue has done so by about 37%. That is, all prices that were below the IPC accrued in the year The former to 20% in terms of investment, for a small saver and not being aware of daily market movements, Fixed UVA term is the right choice because it pays 1% plus inflationbut it is necessary to observe a minimum of 90 days of freezing of resources, so that it can be supplemented with a conventional fixed period of 30 days. Additionally, given what was said above, if the expected inflation is 6% per month or less, a traditional 30-day rollover would be an opportunity, although it would depend on keeping rates in that order.
“It is possible that if inflation goes down, then rates go down, they won’t be profitable anymore, but if the BCRA raises rates again next month with the September CPI, it could be more attractive. Much depends on the BCRA’s decision regarding rates in While UVA is consistent profitability,” Glustein concluded.
The blue dollar may rise this week
in another order, Isaiah Marine economical from Ecoviews He stated that higher rates “have a greater impact in containing the gap.” “Part of the financial dollar’s movement is explained by the strong case derived from the central bank’s purchase of soybean dollars, but the expectation of some tightening or an uptick in the tourist dollar also created quite a stir. The latter, along with prohibiting access to official dollars or dealing in dollar securities for those who maintain energy subsidies, Which could increase the movement of the blue dollar in the coming days.” Down payment.
“But in the short term, the investment cannot beat the conventional fixed term which is already yielding 6.2% per month, in line with the expected inflation for the coming months, and that has no disadvantages of UV fixed term. Although blue may look cheap Compared to the July peaks, it is important to remember that those were operating levels. The danger is that it jumps as we approach the World Cup. The saver has to put that into the balance, but at least today in term, he knows he can protect the value of his savings.”
Inflation pressures the dollar
The Economist Andres Richini in conversation with Domain, confirms that the new rate increase by the central bank is “trying to put the PF yield slightly higher than the expected CPI”. “The drawback is that we started the year with a forecast of around 40% inflation for 2022 and we are already talking about 100%, the central bank issued 12% of the monetary base in 9 wheels of soybeans in dollars to acquire $2. 155 million under this scheme and CCL rose by about 7 % per week to close around $300, which we can believe that the blue color will not last long in these values if this dynamic continues in the financial statements and even lower taking into account the new restrictions on exchange access and the total cost of ownership for the beneficiaries of the price support.”
According to the analyst, “traditional PF will yield 6.16% in 30 days, but we already know that if blue ‘wake up’ this yield can evaporate in a very short time. We don’t know if it will happen, but the ingredients are not available.”