The government’s political support groups in Argentina have been walking a tightrope, doing an incredible balancing act as the “labour movement” has mobilized massively against inflation over the past several weeks, all the while trying to show their support for the Fernandez-Fernandez administration. The ruling Todos Front coalition, led by Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, ultimately runs a Peronist administration, so the country’s largest and most powerful union cannot blame them for the accelerating inflation that gnaws at. wage workers. (They are those damned speculators, of course.) It is also interesting to see organizations such as the General Confederation of Workers (CGT), and even members of the Moyano clan (Teamsters) lend their support to Sergio Massa, the recently appointed “super” – the minister “in charge of an expanded economic group and perhaps Al-Biruni with the longest and farthest contacts with Private sector Confidence in Massa is an even greater leap of faith for Cristina, who has felt a taste of betrayal at the hands of a Tigrayan man in the past, so much so that her former prime minister launched a campaign to rid the public administration of political members of the La Campora organization – led by Máximo Kirchner – while imprisoning officials Corrupts in a thinly lined letter to the Kirchnerites.What alternative might Fernandez de Kirchner have thought during her time on her own, back to the days of Mauricio Macri and political persecution and all?
Oddly enough, many of the principal components of the de Todos Front seem to have admitted, at least for the time being, that they are all in the same boat. And this boat appears to be floating in the sea. Massa, who had been trying to transition from the House of Representatives to a job in the executive branch for some time, was eventually given the helm. Courageously, perhaps even recklessly, he took the reins like a mighty storm struck, and at least he managed to break out in one piece. Martín Guzmán’s main problem was the lack of political support from the strongest faction in the ruling coalition, as the CFK lost confidence after the electoral collapse in the 2021 PASO primaries. Short-lived Sylvina Patakis lasted less than a month in the Economy Ministry because she was unable to muster a certain level of confidence in the market, in large part because no one believed Fernandez de Kirchner was backing her. Enter Massa, the third leg of the trilogy that makes up the Todos front, and there’s nowhere else to hide and no one to blame. The massive scramble for the peso and Argentina’s sovereign debt temporarily ended as the market seemed to reset expectations. At least the guy from Tigre has the political weight to implement, and the clear support of Alberto and Cristina – that was the reading.
Does this hypothesis have any legs? Since taking office in an absurdly festive mood, Massa has managed to create a temporary respite from the constant sense that things are about to explode, but not much more than that. He finally moved forward with the long-avoided increase in utility prices in order to cut subsidies and thus the deficit, an agreement between Guzmán and the International Monetary Fund that has been consistently blocked by Kirchnerism. In doing so, he kicked out two mid-level Kirchners who became big rocks in Guzmán’s shoes, Electric Power Undersecretary Federico Basualdo and his presumed boss, Dario Martinez. At the same time, the government launched a ridiculous public scandal campaign with Malena Galmarini, head of the AySA water utility – who is also Massa’s wife – calling on residents of three luxury buildings to receive unfair water subsidies during Pagina / 12 Newspapers and news channel C5N targeted subsidized prominent businessmen, politicians and athletes including Carlos Tevez and Mirtha Legrand. What was more pathetic than this attempt to distract the public was the fact that it was the Kirchnerians who advocated a system of public benefits that was reactionary in nature. Blame the rich and famous.
He also toured the United States where he secured funding from multilateral organizations and finally got the coveted photo with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. The head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, gave him the advantage of approving the latest tranche of funds after “passing” a macroeconomic review. Domestically, he was able to add some reserves to the central bank through a piecemeal devaluation that allowed soybean producers to take advantage of the differential exchange rate.
The "supernatural" minister promised to tackle inflation, end monetary financing of the deficit, and help the Central Bank to increase its reserves and maintain the growth of the economy. It's hard to visualize how to accomplish this, but at least he doesn't have the president and vice president fighting in the background, using him as a punching bag. Alberto seems to have finally lost all semblance of power as Cristina slips back into the background until the assassination attempt and is now focused on bolstering her image, apparently giving Massa the rope to either hang himself or pull the economy out of the whirlpool of agony.
While it's hard to imagine Christina behind bars, one version that is gaining traction among those "insiders" is that she would be found guilty of leading an illicit association by the Second Oral Court. Accusing the judiciary of "legal war", its legal team is appealing the case and the case will be heard by the Court of Cassation, which will uphold the ruling leading to another appeal and throw the ball to the Supreme Court. The Court of Cassation ruling won't be ready until 2024, giving CFK time to implement its strategy of retreating to Buenos Aires province before next year's elections, a Senate seat and most importantly, immunity, until at least 2029. By then, it will reach She is 76 years old, and even if the Supreme Court eventually finds her guilty, she will only face home confinement. The assassination attempt gave her a new centrality that she could even dream of driving the presidential ticket, but at this point it was all speculation, and it went against Massa's aspirations.
While Massa leans on the Economy Ministry to try to get the rabbit out of the hat and become a palatable presidential candidate, Cristina focused on "legal war" and Alberto in zombie mode, the opposition seems to be emulating Count Ugolino in Dante's Ninth District from Hell. The aforementioned count was thrown there for political treason and his punishment consisted of eating the back of the enemy's head like a wild animal forever. Dante Contrabaso They can be used to illustrate what is happening between the ranks of the opposing alliance Juntos por el Cambio as well, where infighting has become the name of the game. Elisa 'Lilita' Carrillo has been another to take up arms against her relatives, while Macri has been juggling a nomination he considers Horacio Rodriguez Laretta since losing his mentor in the 2019 election. Fragmentation is a very real possibility, and that could pave the way for an unexpected Peroni victory, or the emergence of an outsider. Like the liberal economist Javier Mellie. Time will tell. Until then, it's a Massa ball.
this is Piece Originally Posted in Buenos Aires TimesThe only Argentine newspaper published in English.